Rakai on stream in a red polo and a black-and-grey cap, speaking to camera from his room.
Culture Market Data · Streaming × Footwear × Gen Z
License the Culture →
CPRS™ Soft Pass · RKI-CX-2610-030
Endorsement Deal Analysis · Under Armour Arc 96 “25XX”

$RAKAIUnder Armour rents culture by the drop.

Rakai’s first signature shoe lands October 19 for $155. The identity that makes people want it has no published price, no registered record and no return to the community it came from. A Cultural Use License™ turns that rent into a right.

BCPV
61.50
Index 64.58 · Fashion
Tier
3 · Iconic
Market-moving
Modeled TCPMV
$1.40M
$0.85M – $2.30M
10-yr long tail
$20.1M
Licensed case · modeled
Confidence
0.64
Public record only

A signature shoe usually goes to an athlete with a stat line. Rakai’s stat line is a live chat. Under Armour, the Baltimore brand, just bet that a teenage streamer from Syracuse can sell a lifestyle sneaker to the 16-to-24-year-olds it has chased since 2023.

This soft pass reads the deal the way a cultural property ledger would. It catalogs what Rakai originates, scores the $RAKAI property across the five dimensions of the Cultural Property Rights Standard™ (CPRS™), models the commerce it moves, and shows what the generation behind him is worth over ten years if the relationship is licensed instead of dropped. It’s written for Under Armour.

01 · Asset Identity

A Culture Maker built live, in public

Rakai, known online as 2xRaKai, was born in 2008 and is originally from Syracuse, New York; Complex reports he is now based in Atlanta. He streams in Just Chatting, unscripted and IRL, and rose through the AMP orbit around Kai Cenat. Wikipedia lists 2.5 million Twitch followers and 1.05 million YouTube subscribers; The Business of Fashion puts his Twitch following above 3 million.

2016
Starts posting. Years active begin; a viral clip filmed in his car later turns a hobby into a career.
2024
Mafiathon. Appears during Kai Cenat’s month-long November subathon.
2025
The Rakai dance. Inaugural Streamer University student in May. Improvised lyrics and a dance on “Turn Up” with PlaqueBoyMax and BunnaB (5STAR Records, Oct 24) circulate widely. Nominated Best Breakout Streamer at The Streamer Awards.
2026
From stream to shelf. Reveals the Arc 96 on stream in March. Returns to Streamer University as an alumnus in July. Under Armour readies the Rakai x UA Arc 96 “25XX”.
Oct 19
Release. SKU 6023886-391, $155, via Under Armour and select retailers.

Catalog of creative works

The property is the set of works that carry Rakai’s identity. The holder column shows where each sits today, which decides what Under Armour can license directly from him and what needs another counterparty.

WorkYearFormCurrent holder
“25XX”Custom mark stamped on the Arc 96 tongue and heel counter2026Identity markUnconfirmed
Arc 96 “25XX” colorwayNeon green / black / metallic silver on UA’s Arc 96 model2026Product designUnder Armour
Stream libraryTwitch 2xRaKai · YouTube Rakai Live · IRL and Just Chatting2016–Content archive, voiceOriginator · platform terms
The Rakai danceFrom the “Turn Up” sessions and video2025Movement signatureOriginator · unregistered
“Turn Up” (with PlaqueBoyMax, BunnaB)In The Booth series2025Recording5STAR Records
“AMP DissTrack” (with BabyChiefDoit)2025RecordingUnconfirmed
Arc 96 reveal streamLivestream debut, March 20262026Launch contentCo-created · terms private
Likeness, voice & personaFace-to-camera format, voice across thousands of live hours, “2x” handleOngoingLikeness (D3)Originator · unregistered
02 · The Deal & The Pattern

One shoe, and the pattern behind it

Rakai x Under Armour Arc 96 25XX in neon green mesh with black and metallic silver overlays and a sculpted black-to-green sole.
Model
Arc 96 “25XX”
SKU
6023886-391
MSRP
$155
Release
Oct 19, 2026
Channel
UA + select retail

Hypebeast calls it Rakai’s debut footwear release and notes that the custom “25XX” branding cements the streamer’s personal aesthetic inside UA’s lifestyle catalog. The Business of Fashion read the strategy more than the shoe: while Nike and Adidas re-center athletes, Under Armour is leaning into entertainers and creators to reach the Gen Z buyers it targeted in 2023, on the platforms where they live. Chat reaction to the reveal was mixed, and Rakai asked his followers to back him.

Those are the facts of one deal. The pattern behind it matters more. Under Armour’s brand value has long ridden on the identity of the people who wear it, and its biggest identity lines have recently walked out the door with that identity.

Partner
What the record shows
Status
Stephen Curry2013–2026
Called the “face of their footwear line”; UA’s stock rose and fell with the Curry shoe. The 13-year partnership ended; reports say Curry keeps his logo, trademark and brand. UA expects about a 1% revenue hit, roughly $50M at FY2025 scale.
Exited · brand left with him
Dwayne Johnson2016–2026
Project Rock, cited as one of UA’s most beneficial marketing partnerships. Parted ways in August 2026 to retake full control of the line.
Exited · line reclaimed
Gunna2026–
Named global brand ambassador and creative director of P-Star in August 2026, with a 14-piece collection.
Active
Rakai2026–
First streamer signature shoe. Terms private. No published pricing basis, no registered record of the cultural property, no community reinvestment term.
Active · unlicensed culture

The business is under pressure. Under Armour reported $5.164 billion in revenue and a $201 million net loss for fiscal 2025, sales fell 3% in its latest first quarter, and the company has forecast a third straight year of annual sales declines. Losing the Curry line costs about a point of revenue. In that position, the identity value it rents from Black athletes and creators is the asset it can least afford to rent loosely.

When the originator leaves, the brand learns what it never owned. A license writes that down on day one.MADE CX · Culture Market Data
03 · CPRS™ Dimensional Scoring

BCPV 61.50, Tier 3 Iconic

This is a soft pass on public record: the Hypebeast release notes (October 15, 2026), The Business of Fashion’s The Kicks You Wear (October 13, 2026), Wikipedia’s 2xrakai and Under Armour entries, and Complex. Wikipedia flags the 2xrakai article for notability and source reliability, and no sell-through exists yet because the shoe hasn’t released. The confidence factor is 0.64.

DimensionWeightScoreContribution
CISCultural Influence×0.307422.20
CCIConsumer Conversion×0.254411.00
LIPLikeness & Identity · D3 flagged×0.207214.40
CUVCommercial Usage×0.15629.30
HLMHeritage & Lineage · 0–100 raw×0.10464.60
BCPVFashion CDC 1.05 → index 64.5861.50

CIS 74, the top dimension. Reach is real and measured: 2.5 to 3 million-plus Twitch followers, 1.05 million on YouTube, a place in the Kai Cenat and AMP network, two Streamer University cohorts, a Streamer Awards nomination, and a dance that traveled well past his own channel. Hypebeast and BoF both covered the deal. It stays below 80 because his audience is concentrated in streaming culture and Wikipedia still questions the notability of his entry.

CCI 44, the floor. Nothing has sold yet. The reveal drew mixed reactions in chat, and BoF’s own read is that this shoe “probably doesn’t move the needle” in Under Armour’s totals. A live audience is not settled transactions. October 19 sell-through, reported through a Day-0 pass, is what moves this dimension.

LIP 72, the flagged dimension. Rakai’s identity is co-located in the product: “25XX” is stamped on the tongue and heel, and the shoe was launched by his face and voice on his own stream. His format is face-to-camera for hours at a time, so voice and likeness are recorded at a volume few athletes match. That is why D3 carries the AI flag below.

CUV 62. Commercial use is verified: a signature shoe with a SKU and national retail, a label release on 5STAR Records, and platform monetization. It is held down because every instrument sits with a counterparty, the UA terms are private, and his platform access has been interrupted (see §09).

HLM 46. The lineage is young but specific: the Black streaming generation built around Kai Cenat, AMP and Streamer University, now crossing into sportswear. One career year at national scale doesn’t build custody, so HLM stays in the lower band.

Fingerprint note

Viral-moment shape: high CIS, hollow HLM, CCI unproven

$RAKAI is the inverse of $RAJAH (67.70, lineage-led). Influence leads, heritage trails, and conversion waits on a release date. Calibration references: My First Sneaker Design 59.00 (Fashion, Tier 2), $RAJAH 67.70 (Tier 3), Gray 51.40 (Tier 2). This shape rewards time. Every season the relationship is recorded adds HLM, and every reported sell-through adds CCI. A one-off drop captures neither.

04 · Market Value Computation

$1.40M of commerce the property sets in motion

TCPMV measures the commerce a cultural property moves, not what a person earns or what Under Armour pays. The base below is a modeled, identity-attributable slice of first-year activity: the share that follows Rakai rather than the Arc 96 model or the UA logo. CPRS™ Framework sector multipliers are applied to each line.

Commerce base
$370K
Modeled, identity-attributable
Blended CDC
3.77×
Three sectors
Modeled TCPMV
$1.40M
$0.85M – $2.30M
Community Return
$0
No CPRS™ attribution
LineWhat the property movesBaseSectorTCPMV
Signature footwearArc 96 “25XX” · $155Identity share of first-run retail, net of a 30% realization discount because no sell-through exists yet.$210KFashion 3.5×$735K
Live & creator mediaTwitch · YouTube · collabsLaunch-stream, reveal and activation attention value across 3.5M+ followers.$120KTech 4.5×$540K
Music & movement“Turn Up” · the Rakai danceStreams, video and short-form reuse of the dance and recordings.$40KEnt. 3.0×$120K
TotalBlended CDC 3.77×$370K3.77×$1.40M

The band runs from $0.85M to $2.30M. The property sits inside the Tier 3 Iconic band ($250K–$2M), with the top of its range crossing into Tier 4. It is placed at Tier 3, not rounded up.

05 · The Generational Long Tail

A drop decays. A generation compounds.

Rakai’s audience is the 16-to-24 cohort Under Armour says it wants. In ten years that audience is 26 to 34, in its peak spending years, and still loyal to the people it grew up watching. That is the long tail. A one-off collaboration spends it once. A licensed relationship, re-scored each year on a public record, keeps collecting it.

10-yr, licensed
$20.1M
Cumulative TCPMV
10-yr, one-off drop
$2.8M
Cumulative TCPMV
Long-tail gap
$17.3M
About 7× the drop
Tier 4 crossing
2030
Licensed case only

Curry is the reference. Under Armour signed him at 25, built a line on him for thirteen years, and watched it leave with the trademark. Rakai is eight years younger than Curry was at signing. Under a license, the next decade of that long tail is recorded, priced and renewable on terms both sides can see.

06 · Cultural Use License™

Four lines Under Armour can license today

A Cultural Use License™ (CUL) turns the relationship into registered, priced rights with a renewal schedule. Each line below licenses something Rakai already originates. Bands are modeled annual ranges for a licensed program, not quotes. Together they come to $200K–$570K a year, before any AI line.

Line A · Footwear

Signature footwear royalty

Move the Arc 96 “25XX” from a one-time collaboration to a signature line with a per-pair royalty and annual colorway rights, so both sides share in whatever October 19 starts.

$90K – $240K / yr
Counterparty: Under Armour footwear
Line B · Mark

“25XX” mark & apparel capsule

Register “25XX” as Rakai’s property and license it into apparel and accessories. Under Armour gets clean title to use it; Rakai keeps the mark if the relationship ends.

$45K – $130K / yr
Counterparty: Under Armour apparel & licensees
Line C · Live

Stream-drop activation rights

The shoe launched on his stream. License the live format itself: reveal streams, in-stream giveaways, campus and IRL drops, priced per activation instead of folded into a flat fee.

$50K – $150K / yr
Counterparty: Under Armour marketing
Line D · Movement

The Rakai dance

A movement signature that already travels on its own. Licensed for campaign spots and short-form content, alongside sync for recordings where 5STAR Records clears the master.

$15K – $50K / yr
Counterparties: Under Armour, 5STAR Records

How participation splits

Every line licensed through MADE CX settles on the 80/16/4 split. 80% goes to the originator. 4% goes to Community Return, distributed by the CX Foundation across the four CPRS™ impact categories: Health & Wellness, Culture Alignment, Entrepreneurship and Sustainable Communities. On the $200K–$570K surface, that is about $8K–$23K a year today, and it grows with the long tail.

Under Armour is a Baltimore company, and this is where its first creator license could land first. Community Return from $RAKAI can fund youth creator studios and entrepreneurship programs in the city whose name sits on every UA shipping label, reaching the same 16-to-24 cohort the brand wants as customers.

07 · Forward Model & Urgency

The AI line comes first

D3 ▲ Critical · AI & synthetic exposure

Thousands of hours of a teenager’s face and voice, already recorded

A face-to-camera streamer produces more machine-readable identity than almost any athlete: continuous voice, expression and mannerism across years of live video. Any of it can train a synthetic voice, a generated likeness or an AI shopping host that sells shoes in his style without him.

Modeled at 2–5× TCPMV, the $RAKAI.AI surface is $2.8M–$7.0M. Registering it as a severable property before the next campaign keeps AI and synthetic use out of any default bundle, and gives Under Armour a clear answer to the question every brand using creator likeness will be asked: did you have the right?

08 · Rights Inventory

Proposed registry structure

$RAKAI registers as a parent property covering career likeness, persona and influence. The AI surface is split off as its own entry, and the two works with distinct rights profiles become sub-properties. Sub-property composites are scored at registration, not in this pass.

Proposed Registry StructureCPRS™ · Soft Pass · Conf. 0.64
$RAKAI Parent: likeness, persona, voice and influence property
61.50 Tier 3 · TCPMV $1.40M
$RAKAI.AI Severable AI and synthetic surface: voice, likeness, mannerism. Register first.
2–5× $2.8M–$7.0M unrealized
$25XX Sub-property: the “25XX” mark on the Arc 96 tongue and heel
Scoped Title to confirm
$RAKAIDANCE Sub-property: the movement signature from “Turn Up”
Scoped Band at registration
Community Return Current state, unregistered
$0 CPRS™ attribution
09 · Execution Constraint

What has to be reviewed first

Primary gate · disclosed before any figure is acted on

The originator is reported as born in 2008, and the terms are private

If Rakai was under 18 when he signed with Under Armour, guardian consent and state rules on minors’ contracts govern what that agreement can grant over his name, image, likeness and voice, and for how long. This brief can’t see the agreement or who holds the “25XX” mark. Counsel for both sides confirms both before any line above is priced. A license signed on a registered record is the cleaner instrument in either case.

Secondary gate: platform access. Twitch issued a 730-day suspension in December 2025 and his YouTube live chat was disabled, per Complex and The Times of India. Line C depends on where he can stream, so activation rights should be written platform-neutral.

10 · Position

Culture is the only input Under Armour buys without a price standard.

Fabric has a spec sheet. Factory time has a rate. Retail space has a lease. The identity that makes a $155 shoe worth wanting is priced inside a private agreement, with no published basis, no record of what was licensed, and no return to the community the culture came from. When the originator leaves, the value leaves too, and the brand discovers how much of the line was never on its books.

Under Armour has run that experiment at full scale. Curry’s line left with its trademark. Project Rock went back to its founder. The next generation of brand value is being built right now on streams like Rakai’s, by Black creators whose audiences are years away from their peak spending.

The question for Under Armour isn’t whether streamers sell shoes. It’s whether the brand will own a license to the generation that follows them, or rent it one drop at a time.

A Cultural Use License™ gives Under Armour what the Curry and Rock deals didn’t: a registered, priced, renewable right to use the culture, with the AI surface carved out and a Community Return built in. It costs the least now, before October 19, while $RAKAI is a Tier 3 property. License the long tail before it prices itself.

Methodology, sources & disclosure

Soft pass. Public record only. Not registered, no inspection, no first-party data. Deal facts (SKU, MSRP, release date, March 2026 reveal, “25XX” placement) come from Hypebeast, “Streamer Rakai Takes the Under Armour Arc 96 ‘25XX’ From Livestream to Retail” (Joyce Li, October 2026), which also supplies the Gunna and Dwayne Johnson headlines. Strategy context, the Gen Z 16–24 focus, sales figures and the mixed reveal reaction come from The Business of Fashion, “Can Culture Still Move the Needle in Sportswear?” (Mike Sykes, October 13, 2026). Career facts come from Wikipedia, “2xrakai” (edited October 2, 2026; flagged for notability and source reliability) and Complex. Company financials, the Curry relationship and sponsorship history come from Wikipedia, “Under Armour”. The Curry separation terms and the ~1% revenue impact come from Complex and press reports of Under Armour’s guidance; the dollar equivalent is MADE CX arithmetic at FY2025 revenue. Confidence factor 0.64.

Scoring. BCPV = CIS×0.30 + CCI×0.25 + LIP×0.20 + CUV×0.15 + HLM×0.10, with HLM carried as a 0–100 raw score inside the composite. CDC = 0.75 × 0.40 × 3.5 (Fashion) = 1.05; index = 64.58. Commerce bases are MADE CX models of identity-attributable first-year activity. The footwear line carries a 30% realization discount because the product has not released.

Long-tail model. Illustrative scenarios from the $1.40M base case, with growth and decay rates stated in §05. They are not forecasts of Under Armour sales.

Tier placement. Tier 3 Iconic (Market-moving, $250K–$2M) is placed from the modeled TCPMV band, not the raw composite. The band’s upper end crosses the Tier 4 threshold; the record is not rounded up.

Not verified. Under Armour deal terms and compensation; ownership of “25XX”; production run and sell-through; current platform status; ownership of “AMP DissTrack”. Each is a Day-0 field.

Property valuation, not net worth. TCPMV values the $RAKAI cultural property, meaning the commerce his identity moves. It isn’t a valuation of Rakai’s earnings or contracts, and it isn’t a price, appraisal, endorsement rate or investment advice. Licensing bands are modeled program ranges, not offers. “No CPRS™ attribution” describes value moving without a registered record; it is not a claim that Under Armour or any party underpaid or acted improperly. Company names are used descriptively.

Report RKI-CX-2610-030. Culture Market Data · MADE CX · October 2026. Soft valuation, not an appraisal, not a registered record.

For Under Armour · Brand Partnerships & Footwear

From one Baltimore company to another.

MADE CX registers, scores and records a Culture Maker’s property before the deal is struck, then issues the Cultural Use License™ and settles it on a public ledger. Under Armour gets clean, priced rights to the culture it already sells. Rakai keeps what he originates. Baltimore gets a Community Return. We’d like to make $RAKAI the first license.

Tommy Johnson · Founder & CEO, MADE CX
tommy@made.cx · made.cx
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Disclosure · Valuation

About this analysis. This valuation is an editorial estimate produced under the Cultural Property Rights Standard (CPRS), a proprietary methodology developed by MADE CX. It is not an appraisal, a fairness opinion, an audit, or a certified valuation, and it has not been prepared under USPAP or any other appraisal standard. It is not suitable for financial reporting, lending, tax, insurance, or transactional purposes.

Sources and independence. Figures derive from publicly available information and modeled assumptions as of the publication date. No person or entity named has reviewed, approved, verified, commissioned, or been compensated in connection with this analysis.

Editorial designation. A dollar-sign designation (e.g. $CULTURE) is editorial shorthand identifying the subject of this analysis. It is not a security, digital asset, token, fund, share, or instrument of any kind, and nothing here offers one.

No affiliation; no offer; no advice. Names, marks, and images appear for reporting, commentary, and analysis, and do not imply affiliation with, sponsorship by, or endorsement of MADE CX. Nothing here is an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security or interest, or investment, legal, accounting, or tax advice.

Forward-looking statements. Statements about future markets, values, or outcomes are modeled projections resting on significant assumptions. Actual results will differ.

Corrections and right of reply. MADE CX corrects errors of fact. To request a correction or submit a response for publication, write to hi@madecx.info. Responses received are published alongside the original analysis. © 2026 MADE CX. MADE CX and CPRS are trademarks of MADE CX.